More than anything else, Israeli media reports have consistently suggested that the current stage is one of an outright confrontation between Israel and Iran.

 According to other reports, next May, highly volatile political events will take place. Hence, the month has been called “the dangerous May” by many analyses.

Most analyses expressed concern at a potentially significant volatile situation in the Middle East. A number of events might take a dangerous trajectory, threatening stability in the region. First and foremost is US President Donald Trump’s decision on the nuclear deal with Iran and commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Palestinian Nakba.

Attention is now turning towards Trump’s prospective decision regarding the nuclear deal with Iran. On 12 May, Trump is anticipated to announce whether or not the USA will withdraw from the deal, which his predecessor Obama had reached with Iran.

In addition to the European opposition to his intended withdrawal from, or revocation of, the nuclear deal, Trump faces objections by Russia and China. Both superpowers declared their support of, and commitment to, the deal.

Tehran also declared it would withdraw from the deal, if Washington did.

Israel publicly wishes that Trump would not succumb to the European pressure and fulfil his election promise, namely, to withdraw from the deal which he had described as “the worst deal ever.” Many Israeli officials indicated that Trump did the same thing with the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem, ignoring all warnings that this move could set the whole region ablaze.

Israel commemorates May 13th, the so-called Jerusalem Day. The next day, Israel is expected to celebrate the inaugural opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem, fulfilling Trump’s decision to relocate the embassy from Tel Aviv to the city. On 15 May, the Palestinians commemorate the Nakba anniversary. Then, the Great Marches of Return will reach their final station of protests along the perimeter fence on the Gaza Strip border.

In addition to these events, Iran has threatened to take revenge for the alleged Israeli attacks on Syria several weeks ago. The attacks resulted in the killing of seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Major General (Reserve) Amos Yadlin, Chair of the Institute for National Security Studies at the Tel Aviv University and former Head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, described next month as “the most dangerous May since 1967 and 1973.” Yadlin stressed that the events foreseen in May imply major security challenges.

The reports are issued in cooperation with The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The content of the reports does not necessarily reflect the position of The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Monday, September 27, 2021


The Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies (MADAR) is an independent research centre specialising in Israeli affairs, based in Ramallah, Palestine. MADAR was established in 2000 by a group of Palestinian intellectuals and academics, including the late poet Mahmoud Darwish, Dr. Lily Feidy, Dr. Ali Jarbawi, Dr. Ahmad Harb, Mr. Walid Al-Ahmad and Mr. Akram Haniyyeh. The centre was registered as a not-for-profit organisation with the Palestinian Ministry of Interior, and obtained a research centre’s operational licensing from the Palestinian Ministry of Information.